Beyond the headlines: Understanding the true impact of tariffs, trade deficits, and shifting cross-border policies.
Why can Ontario wine be taxed or blocked at the border while Alberta crude crosses duty-free? And when the United States imposes a tariff, who ultimately pays?
Explore the economics of the Canada–United States trade conflict as of mid-October 2026, using official data and worked examples to assess tariff burdens, trade deficits, legal powers and competing grievances. A four-step framework guides decisions under annual CUSMA reviews.
Work through export pricing, plant investment, household exposure and trade claims. The strongest cases on both sides are presented, with the instructor’s analysis identified.
COURSE OUTLINE:
Part 1: The puzzle. Ontario wine at the border and duty-free Alberta crude.
Part 2: Why countries trade. Comparative advantage and domestic winners and losers.
Part 3: Deficits and dependence. Four trade balances, the Canada–U.S. balance measured both ways, and the gravity model.
Part 4: Tariff economics. Who paid the 2018 and 2025 tariffs, deadweight loss, the floating dollar, investment uncertainty and inflation expectations.
Part 5: History and events. Canada’s 1930 Smoot-Hawley response, the 2018 and 2025–26 tariff rounds, IEEPA and Sections 232, 122, 301 and 338, and the CUSMA review clock.
Part 6: Canada’s barriers and U.S. grievances. Supply management, the digital services tax, culture laws, softwood lumber, the Section 338 alcohol, vehicle and cheese disputes, interprovincial barriers and defence spending.
Part 7: American motives. Fentanyl, the deficit and the claimed subsidy, alongside economic and strategic aims.
Part 8: Measured effects. Trade and diversification, Canadian growth and jobs, household and business responses, inflation and U.S. metal-using industries. Includes Northbrook Aluminum Products’ pricing dilemma.
Part 9: Myths and the bigger problem. Testing both sides’ claims against official tables, then Canada’s productivity problem.
Part 10: Decisions under uncertainty. The four-step framework applied to Lakeshore Estate Winery, Midwest Window Co., a Canadian auto-parts maker considering a C$50 million Michigan plant, and household advice.
Four think questions and three checkpoints (nine scored questions) provide practice. The handout includes an updatable timeline, tariff-exposure worksheet, four-step decision framework and one-page myths guide.
WHO SHOULD TAKE IT:
CPAs, lawyers, financial advisors and business owners in both countries who price exports, source inputs, plan investments or advise clients affected by tariffs, plus anyone interested in testing trade claims against official data. No economics background is assumed.
Educational information only, not legal, tax or investment advice; no professional relationship is created. Tariff facts are as of mid-October 2026; each statistic has its own reference period. Check official sources before relying on them. Analysis reflects the instructor’s views, not those of King’s University College. No affiliation with or endorsement by any government, central bank, court or firm discussed. Northbrook Aluminum Products, Lakeshore Estate Winery,
Associate Professor of Economics | King's University College at Western
#Dr. Jason Dean **Associate Professor of Economics and Applied Economist** Dr. Jason Dean is an Associate Professor of Economics at King’s University College at Western University and holds a PhD in Economics from McGill University. He teaches university students and working professionals, drawing on experience in academic research, economic consulting, public policy and the practical use of artificial intelligence. His CPD work covers applied economics and emerging AI tools. His approach is practical and evidence-based: explain how something works, identify the assumptions and limitations, and give learners a framework they can use in their own work. Jason has worked extensively with generative AI since the emergence of ChatGPT, incorporating it into teaching, research and professional education. He has delivered three presentations for Haver Analytics, most recently a June 2026 session on Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers. He has also presented on AI for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Toronto Association for Business and Economics. His presentations have covered AI productivity tools, copyright, privacy, emerging capabilities and the practical implications of using AI in professional work. Before joining King’s, Jason worked as an associate and health economist at Analysis Group and as an economic research analyst at CEP News. His consulting work contributed to published studies of healthcare costs and treatment outcomes. He has also taught economics to CPA students at Sheridan College. Jason’s teaching career has taken him across Canada, Japan and China. In 2024, he was a visiting professor in Canadian Studies at Kwansei Gakuin University in Japan, where he taught Canadian Business Culture and Canadian Economic History. He has also taught Labour Economics at Wuhan University of Technology and Labour Economics and International Trade and Finance at Renmin University in Beijing. His experience teaching in China later prompted him to develop his Economics of China course at King’s. His Canadian teaching experience also includes Wilfrid Laurier University, McMaster University Continuing Education and McGill University. Jason has contributed assessment questions, digital learning activities and instructional materials to economics resources for McGraw-Hill and Pearson. His research examines questions with practical consequences for households, workers and employers. What happens when immigrants cannot find work related to their education? How does a fall in income affect a renter’s ability to move? Do Canadian housing and stock markets share a long-run relationship? His work has appeared in journals including *Applied Economics*, *Regional Science and Urban Economics*, *Cliometrica* and the *Journal of Housing Economics*. As an Associate Researcher with the Montreal Economic Institute, Jason studies how taxes and benefit reductions affect the financial return to work. His policy publications examine the circumstances of low-income seniors, people taking second jobs and workers moving off income assistance. He has also provided media commentary on housing, labour markets, artificial intelligence and the Canadian economy. Jason also holds an MA in Economics from the University of Guelph and an Honours BBA from Wilfrid Laurier University. --- ## MONTREAL ECONOMIC INSTITUTE | RESEARCH REPORTS - **“End Penalties That Punish Low-Income Seniors Who Work”** (2026), with the collaboration of Gabriel Giguère. - **“The Benefits of Eliminating the Middle-Income Tax Bracket”** (2025), with the collaboration of Emmanuelle B. Faubert. - **“Full-Time Struggle and Two-Job Juggle: A Tax Holiday for Canadians to Fight Rising Costs”** (2024), with the collaboration of Renaud Brossard. - **“Canada’s Welfare Wall: Enhancing the CWB for Full-Time Employment”** (2023), with the collaboration of Renaud Brossard. - **“Labour Shortages: Helping a Trapped Pool of Potential Workers Help Themselves”** (2023), with the collaboration of Célia Pinto Moreira. --- ## POLICY COMMENTARY - **“It’s time to give the middle class a real tax break.”** *The Hamilton Spectator*, March 17, 2025. - **“Hey Ottawa, workers with two jobs could use a break.”** *The Hamilton Spectator*, January 13, 2024. - **“Workers Benefit not working for workers.”** *Financial Post*, May 4, 2023. --- ## PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH | ECONOMICS - Dilmaghani, M., and Dean, J. **“Sexual orientation and intra-household specialization before and after the legal recognition of same-sex marriage in Canada.”** *Applied Economics*, 56(29), 3460–3484 (2024). - Singh, A., McFarlane, A., Dean, J., and Erenburg, G. **“Are Canadian Residential Real Estate and Stock Markets Segmented or Integrated?”** *Empirical Economics Letters*, 23(7) (2024). - Dean, J., and Steele, M. **“Income decline, financial insecurity, landlord screening and renter mobility.”** *Regional Science and Urban Economics*, 95, 103797 (2022). - Dean, J., and Geloso, V. **“The linguistic wage gap in Quebec, 1901 to 1951.”** *Cliometrica*, 16, 615–637 (2022). - Dilmaghani, M., and Dean, J. **“Sexual orientation and homeownership in Canada.”** *Journal of Housing Economics*, 49, 101688 (2020). - Dean, J. **“Does it matter if immigrants work in jobs related to their education?”** *IZA Journal of Development and Migration*, 8, Article 7 (2018). - Dilmaghani, M., and Dean, J. **“Labor Market Attainment of Canadian Jews During the First Two Decades of the 20th Century.”** *Contemporary Jewry*, 38, 49–77 (2018). - Dean, J., and Dilmaghani, M. **“Economic Integration of Pre-WWI Immigrants from the British Isles in the Canadian Labour Market.”** *Journal of International Migration and Integration*, 17(1), 55–76 (2016). - Dilmaghani, M., and Dean, J. **“Religiosity and female labour market attainment in Canada: the Protestant exception.”** *International Journal of Social Economics*, 43(3), 244–262 (2016). --- ## COAUTHORED RESEARCH | HEALTH ECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES - **“Systematic review of long-acting injectables versus oral atypical antipsychotics on hospitalization in schizophrenia.”** *Current Medical Research and Opinion*, 30(8), 1643–1655 (2014). - **“Burden of schizophrenia on selected comorbidity costs.”** *Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research*, 14(2), 259–267 (2014). - **“Impact of omalizumab on emergency-department visits, hospitalizations, and corticosteroid use among patients with uncontrolled asthma.”** *Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology*, 109(1), 59–64 (2012). --- ## OTHER RESEARCH REPORTS - Dean, J., and Dilmaghani, M. **“Religious Diversity and Labour Market Attainment: Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, 1911–2011.”** Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity (2015).
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